Predictions For Monday's Championship Game

I'm not sure what the point is in picking this game...but I've "picked" every game since the sweet sixteen on this blog, so I have to follow the bit through until the end. My gut says to go with Memphis, but then I remember that Kansas was up 40-12 on North Carolina at one point on Saturday night. Again, I'm torn. Let's just throw something out there and see what happens.

Memphis over Kansas

• If it came down to the coaches, I would have never thought twice. John Calipari wins this contest hands-down. Graduates of Clarion University will not be denied. Memphis has bounced UCLA, Texas, and Michigan State over their last three games...and thrashed them all pretty well. This is Coach Calipari's time. I have absolutely no confidence in Bill Self. When they showed him on hands and knees in total relief after the win against Davidson, I knew this guy was more lucky than good. Self is already counting the days (and the money he'll get) until he goes back to Oklahoma State to coach his alma mater.
• Kansas has a tendency to turn the ball over and take bad shots. They turned the ball over 19 times against North Carolina and took a bunch of terrible shots against Davidson. The Jayhawks won't be able to get away with either of those things against an athletic Memphis squad that thrives on fast breaks and their transition game.
• Should Memphis win, my friend John's lovely fiancee, Jill, would win my NCAA pool. I also believe that she would win this championship over Chaz. A very intriguing and interesting sequence of events indeed.
• Memphis is still the position to play the (absurd) "nobody believes in us" card. If they win the title, I can't wait for the post-game interviews when the coaches and players all claim that they were never respected all season long. Please...oh please...would just one journalist or announcer point out to the Memphis coaches and players that they had one loss all season long!
• Derrick Rose has been the best point guard throughout this NCAA Tournament. I have ranted and raved that having great guard play is essential to winning the Big Dance. I'm sticking by my (not too radical or insightful) convictions. The Tigers will be your 2008 National Champions.
• Confidence in this pick: 7.6

1020 & 8101

Bringing Together Davidson & Holy Cross

From Bill Simmons' mailbag this past week, a question and (sort of) answer that draws a correlation between Davidson & Holy Cross. Phil and Chaz, this blog and this NCAA Tournament has come full-circle.

Q: So, Davidson is a small liberal arts school with an excellent academic reputation that just made the Elite Eight? Oh and they have free laundry, and their trustees paid for everyone to go to the tournament games? Holy Cross has no excuse now, the precedent has been set. We need to get it together. -- Jon, Worcester, Mass.

• Simmons: Don't get me started. Hey, I'm glad you brought up Davidson. More than a few readers asked why I haven't been writing about college basketball as much this year. Here's the answer: As long as the NBA is running on all cylinders -- and really, it hasn't happened in 15 years -- I don't see why anyone would watch college over pro unless they had a favorite college team (which I don't, thanks to Holy Cross fading into obscurity). Of all the guys we watched in the tournament this year, maybe eight of them could step into an NBA rotation right away, and only two of them (Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley) could start for a decent team. Personally, I'd rather watch basketball played passionately at the highest possible level; the NBA hasn't been this good since the watershed 1992-93 season and the competitiveness of its games has just been absolutely remarkable. I remember the days when maybe 10 regular-season games per year would stand out; now we're getting four or five a week, and that's not even an exaggeration.
  With that said ...
  Nothing in sports can match what happened Friday and Sunday: An underdog school (Davidson) with a Jimmy Chitwood-type hero (Stephen Curry) toppling one high seed and coming within one possession of making the Final Four, and if that's not enough, Gus Johnson was announcing both games and ready to have an on-air seizure if Davidson had scored on the final play to beat Kansas. Of all the sports (college or pro), March Madness is the only time when you can hop on a bandwagon and not feel guilty about it -- whether it's Belmont trying to topple Duke, Davidson trying to make the Final Four, or whatever -- and it's the only time when an athlete can completely alter his destiny in the span of 10 days. For example, Curry wasn't even considered a first-round pick before the tournament started; now he'd probably crack the top-15 if he came out (which he won't), and if that's not enough, we'll always remember him as the kid with the gorgeous jumper who did the Chitwood impression.
  Anyway, I'm not down on college hoops this year -- the Davidson run was incredible theater, and we're headed for one of the greatest Final Fours of my lifetime. Just know that, overall, the NBA product was markedly better as a whole this season unless you had a college team you loved.

1020 & 8101

Predictions for Thursday's Sweet Sixteen Games

Being that I'm out of every pool that I entered, I've decided to make some predictions on Thursday's games:

West Virginia over Xavier

Reasons:

• WVU's Joe Alexander can go crazy at times and win a game by himself.
• I cannot doubt Bob Huggins anymore (unless he loses this game).
• I don't believe that Drew Lavender's ankle is completely healthy.
• The Big East MUST have at least two teams reach the Elite Eight.
• If Xavier wins, it would actually help a few of my brackets. Therefore, it's not going to happen.
• Confidence in this pick (out of 10): 7.5

North Carolina over Washington State

Reasons:

• North Carolina will score more than 41 points (Sorry again Notre Dame fans).
• Washington State has never won a big game in their history.
• Even if the game is somehow close, CBS will "fix" the outcome in UNC's favor because the CBS announcers have invested too much time in loving Tyler Hansbrough for their run to end with this game.
• I trust Roy Williams more than I trust.....um.....uhh.....thinking hard over here.....who is Washington State's head coach anyway???
• Things might get intense in Chaz and Liz's place if UNC goes out this early, and I'm praying against that happening.
• Confidence in this pick: 9.7

UCLA over Western Kentucky

Reasons:

• Western Kentucky is about to experience what experts call a "letdown".
• Kevin Love and his amazing outlet passes are not going to be denied.
• I think I've almost recovered from Ben Howland leaving Pitt, and am almost ready to trust him and give him credit as an amazing college basketball coach.
• As we've seen all along, the refs are going to make sure UCLA wins no matter what.
• Western Kentucky beat Drake (the pride of Des Moines Iowa), and now they are going to get what's coming to them.
• Confidence in this pick: 8.8

Louisville over Tennessee

Reasons:

• Denny Crum is still coaching Louisville, right? What's that...Rick Pitino is coaching them now? Didn't he used to coach Kentucky? And the Boston Celtics? Hmmm...interesting...I guess I like Rick Pitino as much as Denny Crum in a big game (unless it was with the Celtics)
• James Lofton may or may not have a serious injury and Tennessee has spent the last three days downplaying that "injury'. We all saw what happened with Tom Brady in the Super Bowl after the Patriots tried to hide his "injury". Not good.
• Big East over SEC. It's as simple as that.
• Unless Bruce Pearl has the guts to wear that bright orange sports coat, Tennessee won't have a chance.
• If Tennessee wins, it would actually help a few of my brackets. Therefore, it's not going to happen.
• Confidence in this pick: 7.9

You heard it here first.

1020 & 8101

Thank You Loyal Readers: I'm Back

The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is over, and for a brief moment (hardly a shining one), I thought this blog was over too. There is more to life than March Madness. And while I knew this fact before I began the ambitious endeavour buzzing on the screen in front of you, the project (as well as myself) felt as if it had run it's course. This was meant to be an entertaining creative outlet for myself, as well as a distraction.....and after a little more than a month, that's exactly what this feels like, a distraction. My brackets are horrendous, I'm exhausted, and I'm burnt out.

However...there is something to be said for completing what one starts...and for following through on a commitment that one has made. This blog is not going to "make" my life, and it's not going to change the bigger things taking place in and around my universe. But the parallels between this project and my current world are oftentimes scary. If I cannot demonstrate the simplest forms of commitment, character, and resolve with this blog...how could I possibly expect the same from myself with regard to the actual, moment-to-moment existence that is my life? There is nothing noble in running. There is nothing honorable in simply giving up. When our heart and our gut lead us somewhere, there was probably a damn good reason as to why we ended up at that "somewhere" in the first place. Being frustrated, confused, and exhausted should never be permitted to triumph over one's initial desires and ambitions. There is something to being honest. There is something to staying true. There is something to never giving up. There is something to making a commitment. There is something in following through. And there is something to being there for the people that were there for you all along.

It is for these (and many other) reasons that I am going to push forward, continue with, and finish this blog. Thank you my friends and loyal readers. For the random hits this blog has received from places like Honolulu, Berkeley CA, and Arizona, I thank you. For the devoted readers I've had for awhile but didn't even realize, like Brian in Notre Dame and the person who keeps checking out this blog from Oak Park, I thank you. And a very HUGE and heart-felt thanks to all of the loyal friends who have contributed to this blog, shared comments, and have been reading since the beginning: Annie, Phil, Chaz, Liz, Matt G., John S., and Senator Nate...I thank you.

I'm back. We're down to 16 teams. 15 games left to be played. Let's rock and roll!

Mr. Raftery, do you have anything to say in closing?

Bill: "This blog is going to be followed through to completion.....with ALACRITY!!!"

Thank you Bill Raftery, thank you.

1020 & 8101

Selection Show Running Diary

Selection Sunday is finally here! Today's events will set into motion all of the games, upsets, and gambling ramifications which will take place over the next three weeks. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has been sequestered in Indianapolis all week debating the merits of various at-large teams while doing copious amounts of cocaine. With Pitt winning the Big East Tournament for the first time in five years, and keeping with my theme of "Conquering The 2008 NCAA Tournament"...I just had to keep a running diary of what took place during the Selection Show. I'm hoping the CBS studio team will provide a lot of unintentional comedy, not to mention the fact that they will give about 35 teams "a chance" after seeing the brackets.

6:00 pm - CBS throws out a studio team of Greg Gumbel, Clark Kellogg, and Seth Davis. I actually don't mind Seth Davis. But I'm counting the minutes until Kellogg says something outlandish that will be proven wrong 10 minutes into the games on Thursday.

6:01 pm - UNC is the overall number one seed, the 12th time they have been a #1seed, and the Tar Heels are headed to the East Region.

6:02 pm - Gumbel is sporting some kind of purplish handkerchief in his suit coat pocket...nicely done.

6:03 pm -Memphis is the #1 in the South, UCLA #1 in the West, and Kansas #1 in the Midwest (I really like this Kansas team, although Bill Self still scares me).

6:03 pm - Seth Davis has some kind of subtle checkered patterned suit on. The CBS studio team is donning some classy threads.

6:04 pm - Jim Nanz and Billy Packer make their first appearance! Nantz looks worried that he's going to have to spend the next 3 weeks with this crabby older gentleman sitting to his right. Jim's pre-game preparations include fake smiling and fake laughing.

6:09 pm - East region is slowly announced. The play in game is Mt. st. Mary's and Coppin State. What a crucial game to the tournament! Gotta love the annual play-in game on Tuesday in Dayton Ohio. I need to write a column on that game. Indiana fell to an 8 seed? Hard times for the Hoosiers. Notre Name as a 5 seed against this years George Mason...George Mason!!! Say it isn't so Phil, Annie, Chaz, and Johnny! Butler is the 10th ranked team in the country and they get a 7 seed? Curious. If Louisville is getting a 3 seed...Pitt better fucking get a 3 or a 4 seed. That is if conference tournaments mean anything to the Selection Committee. Kellogg says that Indiana has been playing well lately...what team has he been watching?!?!? Their women's softball team? Davis has much better insight...noting that Tennessee was perhaps a better 2 seed than to be placed in the same region as UNC, and that South Alabama not only got a 10 seed...but gets to play a de facto home game at Birmingham against Butler in the first round. Seems like a really good draw for the Tar Heels.

6:17 pm -Midwest region is slowly announced. Did i call UNLV getting an 8 seed or what? NO!!!!!!!!! Two of my bracket busters are paired against each other in the first round (#8 UNLV vs. #9 Kent State)!!! Fuck!!!! Everything is going to hell! I guess one of them has to win that game though, which means one of my picks will follow through with a victory. Villanova got an at large bid? As a 12 seed? That's it, i quit. This project is over. Georgetown is a 2 seed? Pitt beat them twice this season. Things keep looking good for Pitt's seeding. (I'm setting myself up here for the disappointment and anger of them getting a #6 seed) Nice...UMBC (my first Bracket Buster) gets the privilege of knocking off G-town.Gonzaga 7 vs. Davidson 10...sexy match-up. I like Clemson as a 5 and USC as a 6. This region presents a first-round match-up with two fantastic freshman squaring off with USC's OJ Mayo playing Michael Beasley and Kansas State. Davis just called Siena over Vandy in the first round! People need to hold him accountable for this! Kellogg just called Georgetown's draw "favorable", again...what the hell is he basing these statements on?

6:25 pm - South region is slowly announced. Yikes...Oregon not only got in, but they got a #9 seed? The PAC 10 is getting some mad love this year. But where is Arizona? Nice! Nice! Nice! Pitt gets a 4 seed! AND they get to play Oral Roberts in the first round!!! I get to write about Oral for another week! The bracket gods are truly shining on me! A 3 seed seems too low for Stanford, but I do like the clash of styles in their potential second round game against Marquette. Davis is calling out the Selection Committee for putting the Atlantic 10 champion, Temple, at a 12 seed and St. Joesph's at an 11 seed. He also just put Texas in the final four. Again, commentators need to be held accountable with these picks. This region is looking like the strongest of the bunch so far...with Memphis, Texas, Stanford, and Pitt. It's only been 3 minutes, but I'm liking Pitt's draw here with Oral Robers and a potential second round game against Michigan State or Temple. I'll take Pitt against a Big Ten team anytime. I was typing too much to notice if Kellogg said anything outrageous, I'm sure it happened, but I missed it. I'll make sure to catch whatever he says after they announce the West region.

6:33 pm - West region is slowly announced. You have to like UCLA here, right? Drake is a 5 seed, normally prone to an upset, but they are too good to lose to Western Kentucky. Gotta love Drake to make some noise. Not many slots left, I'm sensing some serious bubble issues coming soon. Arizona is in as a 10 seed. Love Xavier here as a 3 seed...but they are playing this year's team of destiny in the first round, the SEC Tournament Champs, Georgia Bulldogs! Baylor is in. They sure waited to the last second on that one. Great story there with Coach Scott Drew and company. Davis just called Drake to go to the sweet sixteen. Kellogg just said to "keep an eye on West Virginia", and Davis just kind of nodded his head. Seth Davis has to do something there in order to keep from falling asleep.

No Arizona State, no Ohio State, no VCU, no Syracuse, no Illinois state, no Virginia Tech, no UMASS, no UAB, no Dayton. Wow...Dayton had a RPI of 32. Arizona State was the school that was robbed the most here. Oh well. Should have won your respective conference tournaments.

6:39 pm - Back to Billy Packer!!! Bring on the controversy! "I think Davidson is George Mason", quotes Mr. Packer. (me - shaking my head in awe) You're about a year behind the Davidson bandwagon Billy. Thanks for coming along. Not to mention the fact that there is some scientific theory out there that can prove that Davidson cannot, indeed, be George Mason. Apparently Billy has some questions coming up (says Mr. Jim Nantz), so I'll be sure to stay tuned for that. I'm patiently waiting for Billy Packer to make a guarantee. Here is an article reviewing the Selection Show from two years ago. The best part is where Hiestand says, "There weren't many surprises left for CBS' actual selection show. Except, that is, when CBS' Billy Packer began analyzing a bracket that hadn't been announced yet." Classic. I love March Madness.

6:47 pm - Good god. Nantz and Packer interviewing Tom O'Connor, head of the Selection committee. Time for Packer to be Packer, or at least time for him to throw a punch. Packer to O'Connor, "The RPI is something we always kid about, and talk about". I'm glad to know that they are chums. Nothing like kissing the ass of power. Packer seems to be hung up on the ACC (#1 in Conference RPI) only getting 4 bids when the Big East got 8 teams. I don't see him letting this go throughout the tournament, even after 6 Big East teams reach the sweet sixteen as opposed to 1 ACC team. Packer to O'Connor, "We cross paths so many times throughout the course of the winter". Again...glad to know that Packer is chums with people high up on the Selection committee. Nothing too outlandish happening here...Packer didn't throw a player, coach, team, race, or gender under the bus.

6:55 pm - Kellogg goes out on a limb and predicts all #1 seeds to reach the final four. Seth Davis has more balls...going with Tennessee, Kansas, Texas and UCLA. Kellogg's sleepers...Notre Dame, Clemson, Michigan State, and West Virginia. Seth's sleepers...Saint Joesph's, USC Temple, Arizona. Davis picks Temple over Michigan State. And Davis just named UCLA as his national champion, Kellogg agrees with him, also taking the Bruins. I can't WAIT to hear some ridiculous predictions by Kellogg on Thursday.

Hey...Cold Case and Dexter are on CBS tonight! Maybe I'll stick around and keep a running diary of those shows. Maybe not.

Have fun filling out your brackets folks. Let's rock and roll.

Conference Tournaments Starting March 5th

Three more Conference Tournaments start on Wednesday, so I gotta get these picks in the books before the games actually start. Here is a quick look at the Atlantic Sun, the Patriot League, and the Sun Belt along with my picks for each Conference Tournament Champion.

• Atlantic Sun Conference - Belmont - Holy crap we're already getting obscure. When filling out 30 different Conference Tournament brackets, I guess this is bound to happen. I have very little knowledge about this league. I know Belmont made the Big Dance each of the last two years and they are the #1 seed in the Conference this year, so it seemed like the best pick to me. Gardner-Webb is also in this Conference. Their claim to fame being that they defeated Kentucky earlier this year, but could only muster up a record good enough for 6th place in the Atlantic Sun. Sorry to say that the winner of this league is mostly likely going to be a #16 seed in the NCAA Tournament...a whipping boy for a really good team. Notable seeds: #1 Belmont, #2 Jacksonville, #5 Lipscomb, #6 Gardner-Webb (forever living on in Billy Gillispie's nightmares).

• Patriot League - Navy - Sadly, Holy Cross isn't going to represent the Patriot League this year, much to the chagrin of Bill Simmons and my friend Chaz. American is the #1 seed, but I like Navy based on the fact that they defeated American both times during the regular season, and the fact that a podcast I listened to liked this Navy team. I'm not hard to sway sometimes. The Champion of this league is most likely a 15 seed, possibly a 16 seed depending on how wacky the league tournament goes. Hmm...I just checked and the Patriot League is 16 out of 31 in Conference RPI, how the hell is that possible? Regardless, the winner is still destined for a 15 seed. Navy hasn't been to the Big Dance in a decade, they're due. Notable seeds: #1 American, #2 Navy, #3 Colgate, #7 Bucknell, #8 Holy Cross.

• Sun Belt Conference - South Alabama - Finally! A team that I know a little about, like a LOT, and have great confidence in. I'm not going to say much here because South Alabama may just end up being featured in an upcoming Bracket Busters column. They are the #1 seed and beat their main competition, #3 Western Kentucky, both times during the regular season. South Alabama is 25-5 (16-2) and has an RPI of 29!!! I LOVE this team. Even if Western Kentucky or someone else somehow manages to win this Conference Tournament, South Alabama is a totally deserving at-large team. I'll gush more about this team later. If South Alabama wins they could get as high as a 7 or 8 seed. If anyone else wins they could fall in the 10-13 seed range. But remember that you heard about South Alabama from me first. Notable seeds: #1 South Alabama, #2 Arkansas Little-Rock, #3 Western Kentucky, #6 North Texas.

(p.s. send this blog to anyone who might be interested in college basketball, i really want 20 people reading this, but if not, i'll be content with phil and annie)